The setup in rates leans decisively toward higher yields if Trump wins, and that was the story guiding action more than any weather anomalies in the data.

In simple terms, when we talk about “higher yields” in the bond market, we’re talking about the return or interest rate investors get when they buy government bonds. Here’s how it works and why a Trump victory might affect bond yields:

1. What Are Bond Yields?

A bond yield is essentially the interest rate the government (or company) pays to people who lend it money by buying its bonds.

When demand for bonds is high, prices go up, and yields (interest rates) go down. Conversely, if demand for bonds drops, prices fall, and yields go up.


2. How the Economy and Politics Influence Bond Yields

If investors think a Trump victory will lead to policies that increase government spending (like on infrastructure) or cut taxes, they might expect higher inflation. Inflation reduces the buying power of the interest they get from bonds.

To compensate for that potential inflation, investors demand a higher yield.


3. Why Bond Yields Matter

Higher bond yields increase borrowing costs across the economy, which can affect mortgages, business loans, and other types of financing.

Investors in the stock market also watch bond yields, as rising yields can make bonds more attractive compared to stocks.


4. Why Political Factors Affect Bonds More Than Weather

Political factors, like a presidential election, can signal future government policies and economic changes, which impact inflation and interest rates.

Weather anomalies can affect certain industries temporarily (like agriculture or energy), but they don’t usually have as broad an impact on bond yields.


In summary, the expectation that a Trump victory might lead to policies increasing government spending and inflation is pushing investors to think yields might go higher, which is influencing bond market behavior more than any temporary weather effects.